Kenya County Guidelines for Harnessing Demographic Dividend 2019

Demographic dividend (DD) is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a rapid decline in a country’s fertility and mortality levels and subsequent change in the population age structure. It is occasioned by strategic investments in key sectors including education, health, economic and Governance. In recent years, the demographic dividend has been fronted as a solution to the myriad of problems being experienced by developing countries. The devolved system of government in Kenya presents an opportunity to accelerate the realization of demographic dividend. The primary objective of the devolution is to promote social and economic development and the provision of proximate and easily accessible services. Harnessing the demographic dividend in the 47 counties by investing in young people will help to address development challenges which include high unemployment levels, high incidence of poverty, migration from counties in search for better opportunities, low education levels, high mortality and morbidity incidences, and criminal activities among the youth.

Kenya’s demographic dividend model shows that Kenya’s DD window of opportunity opens in 2038 and the country could achieve the following results by 2050 through implementation of activities aimed at achieving the demographic dividend: Investments per capita will increase to about US$ 2,000 from the current figure of about US$ 200; Fertility levels will decline to an average of 2 children per woman from the current 4 children per woman thereby decreasing the dependency ratio: Even with an increase in the population size, the employment gap (i.e. people in the labour force who are not active) will be 8 million which is less than the current gap of 10 million. These results are consistent with the aspirations of Kenya Vision 2030.